Lee Li :台灣股市前幾天在新舊年間空窗期、元月效應之期待及搶反彈等題材作用下，而使股價反彈大漲，其中的鴻海集團、中鋼及台塑集體等股價大漲要特別注意，配合大盤浪潮反彈時要胸有成竹的放空它們於反彈高價點，也就是要洞察真實真相，進而捍衛真理，不要使不合理的公司及其股價在市場上擾亂你我他，尤其鴻海集團股票，因其在前一兩年前景氣高漲時收購了太多公司，現在景氣大滑落，其好大喜功的反作用力與暗能量必定反撲。
The warnings-from giants Alcoa, Intel and Time Warner-were a big factor in the selloff in stocks on Wednesday.
Moreover, these early warnings are expected to be just the first few rumbles in an avalanche of dour outlooks to come.
"It's going to be ugly," said Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. "We're certainly not through the thick of it...I think you're going to see a horrible earnings season." Analysts expect consumer-sensitive areas such as retail and parts of technology to be among the hardest hit as rising unemployment squelches consumer spending and hurts revenue and earnings. Even President-Elect Obama's plan for a massive stimulus package isn't expected to have much impact until later this year.
"While we do anticipate that monetary policy will gain traction over the course of 2009, I don't think you'll see any impact on consumer spending and business spending that would make optimistic about equity prices at this point," says Higgins, who sees consumer spending rebounding perhaps in the third or fourth quarter this year.
While there's hopes for a turnaround later this year, Higgins says the economy has more difficult times to weather before that happens."Analysts have been way too optimistic all the way up to this point," he adds. "After this quarter you may start to see where they'll be playing catch-up to the downside...and maybe we'll see more rational expectations for earnings. Right now I think we have more downside than upside on earnings."
Here's a snapshot of the warnings so far:
- Media conglomerate Time Warner (NYSE:TWX - News) said Wednesday it expects to record a charge of about $25 billion in goodwill writedowns, leading to a loss in the fourth quarter.
- Microchip maker Intel (NasdaqGS:INTC - News) said its fourth-quarter revenue was likely worse than expected due to weaker global demand for personal computers. The company said its quarterly revenue was likely about $8.2 billion, down 23 percent from a year earlier.
- Aluminum giant and Dow component Alcoa (NYSE:AA - News) said it would slash more than 15,000 jobs, halve capital spending and sell four businesses as it reduces aluminum production in the face of the global economic downturn. The company said it imposed a global salary and hiring freeze as it seeks to cope with what Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld called "extraordinary times.
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