美國失業率惡化的啟示

Lee Li:
2007年秋季起我就一直在分析追蹤美國的失業趨勢，因為消費者實質所得、購買力及支出與失業趨勢有顯著函數正相關，且美國消費支出佔經濟活動的2/3。美國在地球上所扮演的機制就如人體之大腦，其消耗最多能量，也是主宰一切機制的中樞。腦出了問題，身體及其他器官組織系統還會安然無恙嗎?雖然我的投資組合裡還有高價已放空的華碩(2357)、鴻海(2317)及國泰金等標的，但我內心(腦部應該是高興的)高興不起來，因為我的靈魂深處一直在告訴我：無緣大慈，同體大悲及民胞物與。此時我的"心"與"靈"戰勝了我的"腦"，體悟洞悉到了下文報導中 Ms.Rachel Davis所說的："You better hope you've got savings or someone backing you." 在我內心最深處也看到了"諸神的黃昏'、"黑奴籲天錄"及"創世紀諾亞方舟"的悲慟啟示。
5年前我為什麼要離開中國上海浦東陸家嘴金融中心，2008年夏天我為什麼以"辛德勒名單"、搶救"雷恩大兵"的心境(不是腦計)在汐碇路搶救山路兩旁的"五月雪"小樹苗，並且把她們移植到較適宜的山區種植，此行動已進行了好幾年，並且養成過著簡樸的生活。當時我也不知道甚麼力量引導我要這樣做。我現在知道了，因為 I surrender my personal will to divine will, and gotcha the knowledge of " the love is divine power".



相關報導與文獻

1. 以下是美國2008年12月份失業數據狀況及未來趨勢報導：

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Job losses hit 2.6 million; unemployment surges to 7.2 percent, heads for 10 percent or higher

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A staggering 2.6 million jobs disappeared in 2008, the most since World War II, and the pain is only getting worse with 11 million Americans out of work and searching. Unemployment hit a 16-year high of 7.2 percent in December and could be headed for 10 percent or even higher by year's end.
Friday's government figures were "a stark reminder," said President-elect Barack Obama, that bold and immediate government action is needed to revive a national economy that's deep in recession and still sinking.
More than a half million jobs melted away as winter took hold in December -- 524,000 in all, the government estimated -- and the true carnage will almost certainly turn out to be even worse when the figures are nailed down more clearly a month from now.
It's real, indeed, for 38-year-old Rachel Davis of St. Louis.

"If you get laid off right now, God help your soul," she said. "You better hope you've got savings or someone backing you." In fact, she was laid off three months ago after working as a dental technician for 20 years. While Congress and the new president struggle to find answers, she says, "I have no faith in this system" and plans to move out of the country in hopes of finding better luck.

The fact that the country is battling a housing collapse, a lockup in lending and the worst financial crisis since the 1930s makes the downturn especially dangerous.

All the problems have forced consumers and companies alike to retrench, feeding into a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are finding difficult to break.
Investors, too. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 143 points Friday to end the week down nearly 5 percent, the worst week since November.
The Labor Department's unemployment report showed widespread damage across U.S. industries and workers -- hitting blue-collar and white-collar workers, people without high school diplomas and those with college degrees.
"One word comes to mind -- dreadful," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
And, there's no relief in sight. The new year got off to a rough start with a flurry of big corporate layoffs, and there were more on Friday. Airplane maker Boeing Co. said it plans to cut about 4,500 jobs this year, and uniform maker G&K Services Inc. is eliminating 460 jobs.
Employers also are cutting workers' hours and forcing some to go part-time. The average work week in December fell to 33.3 hours, the lowest in records dating to 1964 -- and a sign of more job reductions in the months ahead since businesses tend to cut hours before eliminating positions entirely.
"There is no indication that the job situation would stabilize anytime soon," said Sung Won Sohn, economist at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University. "This could turn out to be one of the worst economic setbacks since the Great Depression."

Economists predict a net total of 1.5 million to 2 million or more jobs will vanish in 2009, and the unemployment rate could hit 9 or 10 percent, underscoring the challenges Obama will face and the tough road ahead for job seekers.

All told, 11.1 million people were unemployed in December. An additional 8 million people were working part time -- a category that includes those who would like to work full time but whose hours were cut back or those who were unable to find full-time work. That was up sharply from 7.3 million in November.
If those part-time employees, discouraged workers and others are factored in, the unemployment rate would have been much higher -- 13.5 percent in December. That was the highest for that broader category in records going back to 1994.
Worried about the sinking economy and their own financial fortunes, companies are trimming payrolls as a way to cut costs. Government revisions showed losses in both October and November to be much deeper than previously reported.
"Clearly, the situation is dire, it is deteriorating, and it demands urgent action," Obama said Friday. "For the sake of our economy and our people, this is the moment to act, and to act without delay."
Obama, who takes over Jan. 20, is promoting a huge package of tax cuts and government spending that could total nearly $800 trillion over two years. With add-ons by lawmakers, the package could swell to $850 billion or higher.
The unemployment rate zoomed from 6.8 percent in November, to 7.2 percent last month, the highest since January 1993.
The rate for blacks climbed to 11.9 percent, the highest since the spring of 1994. The rate for Hispanics rose to 9.2 percent, the highest since May 1996. The rate for teenagers rose to 20.8 percent, the highest since September 1992.
Last year was the first that payrolls had fallen for a full year since 2002, and the loss was the most since 1945, when nearly 2.8 million jobs disappeared. Though the number of payroll jobs in the U.S. has more than tripled since then, losses of this magnitude are still brutal.
The nation's jobless rate averaged 5.8 percent for the year -- up sharply from 4.6 percent in 2007 and the highest since 2003.
During President George W. Bush's nearly eight years in office, a net total of 3 million jobs were created. In President Clinton's two terms, roughly 21 million jobs were generated.
Employment last month shrank in virtually every part of the economy -- construction companies, factories, mortgage brokers, banks, real-estate firms, accountants and bookkeepers, computer designers, architects and engineers, retailers, food services, temporary help firms, transportation, publishing and waste management. The few fields spared included education, health care and government.
The lost-job total for December probably understated the reality since some companies probably held off on layoffs around the holidays, economists said. Moreover, the government collects the payroll information around mid-month. So the full extent of the layoffs probably wasn't captured, making it even more likely there will be big reductions in January and that December's cuts will be revised upward.

Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.36 in December, a 3.7 percent increase over the year. But high prices for energy and food through much of 2008 made people feel that their paychecks weren't stretching that far.

Corporate layoffs continue to pile up. Earlier this week, drugstore operator Walgreen Co., managed care provider Cigna Corp., aluminum producer Alcoa Inc., data-storage company EMC Corp., Intermec Inc., which makes electronic devices for tracking inventory, and computer products maker Logitech International announced major layoffs to cope with the recession.
AP Business Writer Christopher Leonard in St. Louis contributed to this report.

2.《辛德勒的名單》——捍衛生命是一種本能
 
 By 顏丹

跟幾個外國朋友談到電影《辛德勒的名單》時，感慨多多。有人說男主角辛德勒是一個很偉大的人，有人說這是一段德國人不願意提及的歷史，也有人調侃說，很好的電影，連配樂都那麼好聽。
如果你是剛剛開始欣賞這部影片，那麼可能影片前半部份會給你一種有點像「災難片」似的感覺，因為大量屠殺鏡頭的呈 現，恐慌場景的勾勒，放縱而又冷漠的人性特寫常常叫人不寒而慄。然而，影片後半部份的故事帶你走進的則是另一個截然不同的世界，在這段故事的描寫中，你將 體會到主人翁辛德勒在歷經思想的大浪淘沙之後，金子般的人性放射出熠熠光芒。也許在面臨生死存亡的考驗時，人性往往會顯露出最本真的一面。
其 實，這部電影一直都如一顆璀璨的明星在西方世界閃耀著它的光彩。美國著名導演史蒂文．斯皮爾伯格通過這部影片，真實再現了德國企業家奧斯卡．辛德勒在第二 次世界大戰期間挽救了1,100餘名猶太人免遭法西斯殺害的真實歷史事件。片名中的關鍵詞「名單」所指的，正是辛德勒用良知和正念救贖的那些生命。
提 起救人，很多人心目中可能都有一些感人至深的故事。然而此部影片中的「救人」不同於其它。奧斯卡．辛德勒原本是倚仗德國軍官做生意的德國商人，他不僅用行 賄的方式與德國軍官同流合污，而且起初面對德國軍官屠殺猶太人的時候，他當起了「睜眼瞎」，只顧賺錢發戰爭財，從不關心別人的生死存亡。可以說，他給人留 下的第一印象是放蕩不羈，沒有原則，甚至與儈子手同流合污，助紂為虐。這樣的人，歷史可能會讓他背上「邪惡」的罵名。可是人性如一面鏡子，當它翻轉過來， 以正面示人的時候，往往會折射出人性純善和正義的一面。在心靈一次又一次備受殺戮和殘忍畫面衝擊時，辛德勒幡然醒悟，在心中與那些以「屠殺」為天職的德國 軍官們劃清界限，放下德國人和猶太人曾經的仇怨，開始想盡一切辦法拯救那些無辜的生命。那時他突然明白，再也沒有甚麼比捍衛生命更為重要。也就在那時，他 開始從一個被慾望駕馭的魔鬼蛻變成捍衛生命的英雄。
影片一直是用黑白色調為主題來描述當時猶太人在面臨槍殺時的極度恐懼和絕望。然而在逃亡 的人群中，有一個身著紅衣裙的小女孩(小女孩如我搶救的五月雪小樹苗)特別顯眼。導演把電影中唯一的一抹紅色表現出來，讓觀眾們感知和體會生命的希望對於當時的猶太人來說是那麼重要。小女 孩大概三、四歲，對於一個初到人間不久的生命來說，她甚至不能理解「生命」的意義和價值。但是在慌亂的人群中，她還是竭盡全力地逃亡著，看到一道打開的門 縫馬上就鑽了進去。因為她知道她不能死，她要盡力挽救自己的生命，要頑強的活下去。一個小小的生命也知道不顧一切的保護自己，這樣的情景讓人憐惜，也讓人 充滿了感傷。
此時，站在山頂上的辛德勒看到了逃亡的人群，看到了那些德國軍官槍殺人命時的毫不留情和人性盡失，看到了那個穿紅衣裙的小女孩 弱小的身影在驚恐萬分的人群中拚命的穿梭，這一幕幕畫面帶給他的震撼可想而知。尤其是那一襲紅裙猶如一朵含苞待放的花蕾，在他的心中篤定的綻放，喚醒了他 內心深處捍衛生命的良知，讓他開始對生命產生了全新的思考。這個小小的生命讓他發現「捍衛生命」原來是人與生俱來的本能，而這種發現也為他此後不顧一切挽 救生命打下了伏筆。
辛德勒是一位非常聰明的商人。雖然他的內心已經不再屬於德國軍方，雖然他每天看到猶太人不斷的遭受槍殺，心急如焚，但是他還是採取了冷靜和迂迴的方式，企圖通過言語的交談和情感上的溝通來勸服當權者。
「權 力是甚麼？一個人犯了罪，皇帝可以判他死刑，卻赦免了他，這是權力！ 當你可以不需要任何理由處置一個犯錯者時，你卻選擇了寬恕，這就是權力。」辛德勒希望用善意的勸誡來感化德國軍官。然而殺戮之心已成為一個惡魔，使人喪失 了本性。辛德勒最後的幻想破滅了。終於，他下定決心要用自己的方式挽救生命。
他不斷地滿足德國軍官貪婪的慾望，用自己曾經發的那些戰爭財收 買了魔鬼的心，用「需要大量猶太人勞工為自己工作」的理由換回了1,100個生命。原本辛德勒可以拿著巨額的錢財遠離塵囂，享受舒適的小日子，然而他卻放 棄這一切，選擇了傾其所有，救人於水火。如果不是人性中的善念在呼喚，他如何體會到捍衛生命原來一直是埋藏於人心靈深處的本能？他用自己的本能救了他人， 也救了自己。正如猶太人最後對辛德勒說的那句話：當你挽救了一條生命就等於挽救了整個世界。
如果有人覺得辛德勒的做法不過是舉手之勞，不過是用不盡之財不小心做了一件善事，可能從做生意的角度來說，他沒有投資，最後也沒有收益，看起來這不算甚麼損失，也談不上有救人的決心。然而，影片的最後可以讓你我都改變這樣的看法。
辛 德勒成功的讓德軍同意讓1,100名猶太人以工人的身份進入他的工廠工作，這樣他可以光明正大的保護工人免遭殺害。當運送猶太人離開關押地點的火車開往辛 德勒工廠所在地時，有一輛運送女工的火車並沒有順利到達，而是開去了德國軍方安排最後屠殺猶太人的集中營。可想而知，那些婦女即將面臨的是怎樣的命運。然 而在工廠焦急等待女工的辛德勒得知消息後，義無反顧的趕往集中營，用僅有的幾顆價值連城的鑽石換回了那些女工，再一次救回了差點兒丟失的人命。
因 為自己的財力有限，他還一再求助於朋友，希望能救回更多的生命。即使到了最後，他已經盡全力救了1,100個猶太人，卻仍然自責的說：「如果我的生活不那 麼奢侈，我可以再多救些人，如果我再多賺點錢……」此時，在他的心裏，金錢的價值已經不再那麼重要，人命比甚麼都可貴。只要能救人，花再多錢也在所不惜。 這一切如果不是出於堅定的信念和救人到底的決心，那又是甚麼的力量讓他始終不放棄那些猶太人的生命呢？
當然，影片中還有很多感人至深的場 景，點滴筆墨並不能詮釋所有。曾經很多人覺得，金錢比甚麼都重要，為了滿足物質的慾望，為了得到現實的利益，似乎甚麼都可以丟棄。然而，在面對一個個鮮活 的生命慘遭殺戮的時候，拯救生命是否比獲取金錢更為重要呢？也許你會發現，當你在拯救一個生命時，你最先想到的一定不是如何成為英雄，而只是覺得救人其實 是出於一種本能。這種本能正是人人都擁有的良知，它時時刻刻都在你我的心裏。