今天要探討美國嚴重失業的實際狀況，此持續惡化的失業引發的產業、貿易關連，已帶給台灣電子IT等產業致命的一擊。
My algorithms :
【U.S.unemployment↑→ Consumer Real Income↓→Consumer purchasing power↓→Consumer Spending↓→ Companies Orders↓】→【Stock Price↓】←【Companies Real Revenue↓ ←Companies Real Profit(EPS)↓】；
Red : Leading Indexes, Black : Lagging Indexes ;
US's GDP and Jobs came up short of expectations, and the general feeling is that now the stimulus is gone, what comes next and to be? and then Taiwan ?
***美國政府最新(2008/07/31)資訊：
(a)The Commerce Department said that GDP growth rose 1.9% in the second quarter, lower than the 2.3% expected from economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Growth in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2007 also were revised lower.
(b)Separately, the Labor Department said that initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped up 44,000 to 448,000 in the week ended July 26, the highest level in five years.
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1.美國失業、經濟成長及通貨膨脹持續惡化，造成消費者實質所得、購買力及消費支出每下愈況；
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2台灣的外銷訂單趨勢每下愈況；
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3.台灣廠商訂單、營收獲利趨勢持續惡化；
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4.台灣股市籠罩在熊市前沿的暴風圈裡，暴跌、大幅振盪不斷；
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台灣股市：
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The U.S. Labor Department July employment report:
In July, U.S. continued to reduce employment opportunities, the unemployment rate rose significantly. I'd believe that
US's actual situation of the job market is more worse than the data shows. It's an important issue that how to
increase employment is the Democratic Party and the Republican Party presidential candidate for voters.
The U.S. Labor Department July employment report that jobs of the government increased this month, but the jobs of private sector plunged. Overall, the U.S. economy got a net loss of 51,000 jobs, same level to June, but the unemployment rate increasedfrom 5.5% to 5.7%.
The actual unemployment rate's above 10.3 % worse than data shows:
The U.S.unemployment rate data do not reflect the actual employment situation. The real situation's even worse than the data show. The adults have been continuing to increase, who choose to abandon efforts to find a job since President Bush took office. If the ratio of these people over the proportion remains in the Bush came to power, the unemployment rate is not 5.7 %, but 7.1 %.
The actual unemployment rate is higher, as the calculation of the actual unemployment rate has made the following explanation: In the just-published July employment report, 19.1% of the unemployed have been unemployed for over six months. The ratio of one person over every five personal has been unemployed for a long time. the unemployment rate data cover up the seriousness of the unemployment problem. There is another point to the problem that is not completely of employment. Although there are many people working, but working hours to less than eight hours a day. They certainly have not been calculated into the number of unemployed people, but their employment is not complete. If calculate those who have given up looking for work and those who do not have full employment, the U.S. unemployment rate should be as high as 10.3 %.
Eemployment situation of the young has been continuing deterioration:
The employment of young people this year also marked deterioration.The last three months, the age of 16-year-old to 24-year-old young people can not find a significant increase in the number of work. Every summer, millions of young people are entering the job market. This year the number of the group same to last year, but fewer people found job. In May to July, the 16-year-old to 19 years of age, the unemployment rate is 19 %, while at the same time last year, the unemployment rate is 15 %. In the age group 20 to 24-year-old young man , the unemployment rate is 10 %, and 8% for the same period last year.
The reason of employment recession :
The U.S. serious unemployment = F( China).(Note: the reasons why...)
In the current increasingly intense time, the problem of employment has become very sensitive. In the past seven months, the U.S. job market has lost about 500,000 jobs. It is natural to ask, what's the reasons cause the resulting in the employment recession? briefing of the reasons attributed to economic weakness. Of course, the employment data reflects economic growth weak position from earlier this year to the end of last year . the number of jobs reduce less than expected, but still declining, this is a reflection of weakness in the job market. Rise in the unemployment rate is the same , As long as the lower rate of economic growth, that the unemployment rate and employment data will also be reflected.
Those who support for Democratic presidential candidate Obama, said: since 2000, we have seen minus effects of this tax cut policy that for the rich to achieve increased employment. President Bush got to do implementation of the policy of the rich tax cut plan. The results, we see the worst unemployment record. Republican presidential candidate John McCain is still said to inherit Bush's tax cut policies, the result will be is self-evident. In my view, has proved a failure with the policy compared to Democratic presidential candidate Obama proposed tax cuts for the poor and the rich tax increase policy is to have the opportunity to achieve success of presidential election campaign.
How to increasing jobs, revitalize the U.S. economy:
To increasing employment, revitalize the U.S. economy, the new policy that must first adjust the economic structure of the United States, to adjust the trade relations with China and reduce the dependence on foreign energy. Otherwise, it will be difficult to the U.S. economy out of a weak state.
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