China's GDP may have overvalued, and at least 2% overvalued / 中國公佈的GDP有高估的可能，且至少高估2%

China's growth rate of GDP, the first quarter last year was 11.1 %, in the second quarter was 11.5%, in the third quarter was 11.5 %, the fourth quarter was 11.4%, in the first quarter was 10.6 %. In July of last year , the United States began the global financial crisis seems to have no impact on China, it's very stable, China's as a developing country, it's economic growth performance is so stable, is very surprising, Even a developed country will have the so-called output volatility, the volatility in developing countries should be greater, but in China not see the data, there are two possibilities, one is the data with problems ,and another that it is a miracle, so it is perfect.
I can not believe the China's statistics. China's reform and opening up from 1978 to 2004, its annual GDP growth rate is an annual average of 9.3%, this is a very high figure, the analysis of this 9.3%, of which 2 % is from the employment growth, 3.2% from the physical capital investment, 0.2% from the education and human capital . By macro economic model to compare input and the output data, the increase of regression residuals of all elements of total factor productivity( TFP) in China ,is an annual average of 3.8 % during this period, this is a very high figure.
During the same period in East Asia (excluding China) in 1980 to 2003, GDP increased 6.1%, employment increased 2.4 %, the East Asian region no one-child restrictions, so labor is relatively high growth rate, a 2.2% in capital, 0.5 % in education, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and other major economies in East Asia during this period all factor productivity increased by only 0.9 percent, if consider economic development in East Asia earlier, in the view of 1960-1980 , All of the elements of productivity increased by only 1.2 %. This means that once created the economic miracle of the East Asian region, the TFP only about 1%, but China has 3.8 %, and the major increase of TFP came from the manufacturing sector.This figure is difficult to interpret and imagine.
So China's fundamentals are not sufficient to support its stock market to be up.