Let's give praise to snow-plum / 頌雪梅

萬花豈敢雪中出，一翦紅梅展天姿，
傲雪俠骨獨芬芳，凝冷映雪一枝春；
寧可枝頭抱香死，何曾吹落北風中？

踏破鐵鞋無覓處，歸來偶對梅花嗅，
春在枝頭已十分。



~~本文原本訂於今年4月份發表，但居於夏季的荷花、秋季的桂花等尚未登場，所以延至現在才發表，豈知景氣寒冬卻快速提早到來! ~~

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After 2009 Q2 The Storm will Bring the Effect of Back- to- South / 2009年第2季起進入景氣風暴的回南效應

回南效應：颱風在北半球是逆時針轉動的，颱風從東邊登陸時，風從南邊過來，等到颱風眼經過時，就會無風無雨天氣晴朗，颱風眼過後，颱風的東邊暴風是往北吹的，也就是吹南風，這就是回南效應 。

西南氣流：風在北半球直線移動時幾乎都是向右偏移的，向從赤道往北吹的風，往右就是慢慢往東，由於慣性是向北，所以往東北方吹，叫做西南信風 ，會夾帶大量豪雨，所以稱西南氣流。

共伴效應：由颱風回南效應和西南信風加強了水與氣的運送，以至於颱風離境期間，還會持續一段很長時間的共伴效應----強風吹襲且降雨強度強的雨量 。

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I'm Alive to Surrender Personal Will to Divine Will !

Obama is appreciated and admired : Change is Constant → Seek only the Truth → Surrender My Personal Will to Divine Will → Lower is Divine power → Live in the Present Moment.

In the next couple of days after the U.S. presidential election , We are going to focus on the fact that we still have these issues that aren't resolved.
The Commerce Department said Tuesday that factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than the 0.7 percent drop analysts predicted. But investors generally expect data from September and October to be extremely weak, as credit markets began to seize up in mid-September.

Obama's remarks calmed the market after the day's economic reports pointed to more weakness. The government reported that unemployment at recessionary levels, new home sales at their lowest level in nearly 18 years, another plunge in consumer spending, and factory orders for big-ticket items down by the largest amount in two years.

Analysts believe much of the bad news is already factored into stock prices; last week before the presidential election saw the Dow rise 11.3 percent -- its best weekly gain in 34 years. But major indexes have lost about 10 percent since Barack Obama was elected president -- a vote preceded by a steep rally -- and the losses represent the Dow's worst two-day percentage decline since the October 1987 crash.

What can we do? only can we do to surrender personial will to divine will, and down in the river or up on the hill to pray the Amazing Grace of God giveing us a hand.

具領先指標作用的工廠訂單約須經1～2季的生產運輸交貨，才會轉化成為損益表裡的銷售金額和獲利。

美國、產業、廠商及個人現已身處漸凍惡境中，在Obama被選為總統後，此狀況勢必更加惡化，而身為以美國為主的供應鍊中一環的台灣，其目前面臨的威脅與劣勢是大量依賴海外市場，其廠商接單趨勢為其景氣狀況的重要領先指標，也是其股市基本面走勢的重要領先指標。

若經營管理無效力，現在起多數國家、產業、廠商及個人的損益平衡表和資財負債表之表現勢必每下愈況。

U.S. Manufacurers' New Orders↓/ Auto Companies Sales Are the Worst in 25 Years / 經濟的預測是股市走勢的自變數(式)

美國商務部今天表示，9月工廠訂單下滑2.5%，8月則自初報的-4.0%下修至-4.3%。非耐久財訂單減5.5%，減幅兩年來最大。而使用期限至少3年的所謂耐久財訂單9月增加0.8%，因為飛機及汽車訂單需求呈現反彈。
不含運輸設備的訂單減幅創歷來最大，顯示公司行號因國內外銷售暴減而減少訂單。
未來訂單及生產展望不佳，經濟來到斷崖邊，信貸危機又推了一把。製造業將因出口減緩而衰退。

0、 U.S. GDPt=Ft-6(美國汽車銷售)=G(Xi)=G(失業,油價,消費者資產,消費者實質所得...)；


多變量時間序列回歸分析：
美國汽車銷售是經濟(成長)的先行指標，平均約領先6個月。美國汽車銷售會在今年第4季(後)觸底 → 美國經濟2009年下半年(後)觸底。
Major auto companies reported weak sales ----are strong indications that sales for the industry as a whole may perhaps be the worst in 25 years.
Major auto companies reported weak sales for the month of October on Monday. General Motors Corp. said its U.S. sales plunged 45 percent in October because of weak consumer confidence and tight credit markets. Ford Motor Co. said its sales fell 30 percent, while Toyota Motor Corp.'s dropped 23 percent and a 25 percent decline at Honda, as low consumer confidence and tight credit combined to scare customers away from showrooms.
The data, particularly on manufacturing, support the growing belief that the economy is in recession, hurt by a drop in lending and slower overall spending. But with the Dow Jones industrial average having tumbled more than 14 percent in October -- its worst month in 21 years -- the market priced in a significant falloff in economic activity. Wall Street must now determine whether the selloff in stocks is adequate, not enough or overdone.
一、You're Fooled by Randomness without Perception, and Exposure Yourself to Rising -E(Risk).
信貸市場的動盪帶來股市的大暴跌，使人日益相信，全球緊跟美國逐漸步入信貸和經濟危機。
Its fears about the spread of troubles beyond banks in the U.S. to Europe and other markets.
And it raised the question:
(1) Which banks are next, and how many? The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has a list of over 110 banks that were in trouble in the second quarter, and that number surely has grown in the third.
(2)What'll happen in Taiwan? The answers have been said in my past analysis---Added value approaching 0；

二、股市走勢是經濟的先行指標 而經濟的預測又是股市走勢的自變數(式)
(1)With investors uncertain about the economy, the market appears to be bouncing along a rocky bottom after falling sharply earlier this month.
(2)We probably are due for some type of a bounce. Bear market rallies can be amazing graces. I think we could get one of those graces sooner than later.