U.S. Manufacurers' New Orders↓/ Auto Companies Sales Are the Worst in 25 Years / 經濟的預測是股市走勢的自變數(式)

美國商務部今天表示，9月工廠訂單下滑2.5%，8月則自初報的-4.0%下修至-4.3%。非耐久財訂單減5.5%，減幅兩年來最大。而使用期限至少3年的所謂耐久財訂單9月增加0.8%，因為飛機及汽車訂單需求呈現反彈。
不含運輸設備的訂單減幅創歷來最大，顯示公司行號因國內外銷售暴減而減少訂單。
未來訂單及生產展望不佳，經濟來到斷崖邊，信貸危機又推了一把。製造業將因出口減緩而衰退。

0、 U.S. GDPt=Ft-6(美國汽車銷售)=G(Xi)=G(失業,油價,消費者資產,消費者實質所得...)；


多變量時間序列回歸分析：
美國汽車銷售是經濟(成長)的先行指標，平均約領先6個月。美國汽車銷售會在今年第4季(後)觸底 → 美國經濟2009年下半年(後)觸底。
Major auto companies reported weak sales ----are strong indications that sales for the industry as a whole may perhaps be the worst in 25 years.
Major auto companies reported weak sales for the month of October on Monday. General Motors Corp. said its U.S. sales plunged 45 percent in October because of weak consumer confidence and tight credit markets. Ford Motor Co. said its sales fell 30 percent, while Toyota Motor Corp.'s dropped 23 percent and a 25 percent decline at Honda, as low consumer confidence and tight credit combined to scare customers away from showrooms.
The data, particularly on manufacturing, support the growing belief that the economy is in recession, hurt by a drop in lending and slower overall spending. But with the Dow Jones industrial average having tumbled more than 14 percent in October -- its worst month in 21 years -- the market priced in a significant falloff in economic activity. Wall Street must now determine whether the selloff in stocks is adequate, not enough or overdone.
一、You're Fooled by Randomness without Perception, and Exposure Yourself to Rising -E(Risk).
信貸市場的動盪帶來股市的大暴跌，使人日益相信，全球緊跟美國逐漸步入信貸和經濟危機。
Its fears about the spread of troubles beyond banks in the U.S. to Europe and other markets.
And it raised the question:
(1) Which banks are next, and how many? The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has a list of over 110 banks that were in trouble in the second quarter, and that number surely has grown in the third.
(2)What'll happen in Taiwan? The answers have been said in my past analysis---Added value approaching 0；

二、股市走勢是經濟的先行指標 而經濟的預測又是股市走勢的自變數(式)
(1)With investors uncertain about the economy, the market appears to be bouncing along a rocky bottom after falling sharply earlier this month.
(2)We probably are due for some type of a bounce. Bear market rallies can be amazing graces. I think we could get one of those graces sooner than later.