June export orders sounded the warning Taiwan's stock market / 六月份外銷訂單敲響台灣股市的警訊

The algorithms :

【unemployment↑→ Consumer Real Income↓→Consumer purchasing power↓→Consumer Spending↓→ Companies Orders↓】→【Stock Price↓】←【Companies Real Revenue↓ ←Companies Real Profit(EPS)↓】；
Leading Indexes : Red, Lagging Indexes : Black ;


具領先指標作用的外銷訂單通常約須經1～3個月的生產運輸交貨，這些訂單才會轉化成為損益表裡的銷售金額。由於台灣大量依賴海外市場，因此外銷訂單為台灣景氣狀況 的重要領先指標，也是股市基本面走勢的重要領先指標。

1.六月份外銷訂單處反轉點： 6月份外銷接單金額為313.6億美元，年增率僅9.27%，創下去年三月以來新低。


2.主要是因為歐、美與日本市場都看不到面板的訂單明顯成長，6月面板接單成長率從5月的18.54%，




下滑至8.24%；電子產品接單成長率也從5月的17.91%，銳減至9.83%，由於兩項產品占外銷接單權重高，是 造成6月外銷訂單失色主因。



3. 美國市場因失業問題嚴重與油價高漲，致消費支出銳減，導致台灣對美國市場接單衰退。6月份接自美國訂單金額為70.3億美元，比去年同月減少3.86%，是近五年三個月以來首度衰退。




3. 預估7月份外銷訂單：仍將維持個位數% 成長，不會回升到兩位數。且對廠商外銷訂單的意見調查反應，有28.69%預期7月接單金額將減少，僅22.3%預期會增加。


4. 現在外銷訂單趨勢是處於每況愈下，顯示廠商營運業績正處於收縮階段，對股市是為基本面利空因素，並且也是匯市貶值的潛在因素。

Young man! Why are you here ?

I'm here just for appreciating the unchained melody of the saxophone is playing "Auld Lang Syne" under the vast night galaxies.
And you?

Same you!

Okay! Let's catch intoxicated together with melody of the saxophone's play to be unchained, resonated and sympathized in the depths .

There aren't going to be +Xmas effects, are there?

The algorithms of my stock picker are :
【Consumer Real Income→Consumer purchasing power→Consumer Spending→ Companies Orders】→【Stock Price】←【Companies Real Revenue ←Companies Real Profit(EPS)】； Leading Indexes : Red, Lagging Indexes : Black ;

過去、現況及未來：

【unemployment↑→ Consumer Real Income↓→Consumer purchasing power↓→Consumer Spending↓→ Companies Orders↓】→【Stock Price↓】←【Companies Real Revenue↓ ←Companies Real Profit(EPS)↓】；
Leading Indexes : Red, Lagging Indexes : Black ;

1.U.S. unemployment problem is serious , long-standing and continuing deterioration/美國失業問題嚴重，且由來已久、持續惡化(Leading Indexes) ：According to the Labor Department's report：
‧In June alone, employers got rid of 62,000 jobs, bringing total losses so far this year close to a staggering half-million -- 438,000.
‧There were 8.5 million unemployed people as of June, up from 7 million a year earlier.
‧The jobless rate held steady at 5.5 percent after jumping in May by the most in two decades. Still, June's jobless rate was considerably higher than the 4.6 percent of a year ago.
‧The unemployment rate is expected to climb through the rest of this year and top 6 percent early next year.

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2.Unemployment and inflation cause consumers real income and the purchasing power to be bad to worse/失業與通貨膨脹造成消費者實質所得、購買力每下愈況(Leading Indexes)：
‧Consumer spending accounts for more than 2/3 of U.S. economic activity.
‧with more job cuts expected in coming months, there's growing concern that many people will pull back on their spending later this year.
‧U.S. consumers who are out of work or are nervous about losing their job are likely to trim or cut their spending.They've already become cautious because of higher prices of food and energy.
‧U.S. consumers have been monitoring their budgets more carefully in the face of higher energy prices, falling home values and an uncertain jobs climate. The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that retail sales edged up by 0.1 percent in June, a weaker amount than expected, due to plummeting sales at car dealerships.

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3.Companies Orders↓/廠商訂單↓(Leading Indexes)、Real Revenue and profit↓/營收獲利數據↓(Lagging Indexes)持續惡化：
‧中國東莞經貿局最近公布的數據顯示，今年上半年，東莞具規模以上工業利潤與去年同期比下降4.02%，是2001年以來的首次負成長。中國東莞企業在很大程度上倚賴國外訂單，而今年上半年，出現了前所未有的嚴峻形勢。
.....「我們這行業，目前美國發來的訂單只有以前的一半，歐洲和日本的訂單也起碼減少10%。」..........。
導致中國東莞工業利潤負成長的原因包括世界(尤其美國歐洲等)經濟增長放緩、人民幣升值、能源原物料價格不斷漲價。

‧台灣電子業Q2~Q3營收獲利將低於預期:
台灣電子廠商多半屬於第2、3階供應商，當需求下滑時，客戶為了維持經濟規模，就會採取整合供應商方式，如此將衝擊這些第2、3階供應商。此外，需求減緩， 企業外包的情況就更嚴重。這種外包經營模式除了得面臨到弱勢美元帶來的風險，在中國大陸的營運成本、運費等等也會提高，一連串的因素也影響台灣電子業第 2、3季表現。由於成本提高、利潤降低，企業所面臨到的壓力及衝擊越來越明顯，預估今年第2季營收低於預期，第3、4季業績也將持續惡化。

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4.全球股市籠罩在熊市的前沿暴風圈裡，暴跌、大幅振盪不斷(Leading Indexes)：‧U.S. : The Dow Jones industrial average dropped below 11,000 for the first time in nearly two years before settling at 11,100.54 Friday. The blue-chip index ended the week down 1.67 percent; the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.28 percent; and the Nasdaq composite index fell 1.85 percent.
The three indexes are firmly entrenched in bear market territory, down more than 20 percent from their peaks last fall. The average bear market ultimately leads to a drop of about 30 percent.
‧Taiwan : 先行反應基本面的每下愈況，台股相關廠商的股價從去年秋季起就一路往下修正。自新政府上任以來仍然持續下跌，迄今仍未看到止跌訊號 。台股從 520以來，外資累積已賣超台幣2025億元，指數跌 掉2477.65點，跌幅達 26.62%，跌幅居全球股市之冠。

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5.Are there going to be Xmas effects?
Yes, there're going to be Xmas effects, but without the pluses!

Market Crash? Or Bear Market? 是崩盤? 或是熊市?

Bull(O) → Crash(O) → Fluctuate(O) →Bear (？)

崩盤是沒有定量化的數據來加以具體定義，但依一般經驗法則是，在一明確的期間，股價指數有兩位數的百分比下跌幅度就可說是崩盤了。

股市崩盤經常是股市投機泡沫化的必然過程，其現象是股價突然間全面性的暴量重挫，接著是連續量縮價跳空下挫。崩盤大多是因經濟面因素不妙所產生的心理面連鎖性恐慌所引發的。

股市崩盤是經濟事件結合群眾行為模式和心理因素連鎖相互反應的社會現象。一部份群眾的心理行為模式啟動市場反饋迴路積極的運作，進而引發一波波不可收拾的羊群效應,其他惶惶不可終日的群眾也跟隨低價殺出股票。在這恐慌、斷層的期間，內盤要賣出的動量遠大於外盤要買進的動量。


一般來說，通常引發崩盤的四個充份條件是：股價長時間的上漲、經濟的過度樂觀、本益比超過長期平均值及市場過度的使用信用交易和擴大槓桿效應。

崩盤有別於熊市，崩盤是出現全面的恐慌性殺出股票和突發性、斷層式的價格下挫。而熊市是價格在下降的期間可以被連續性測量的。崩盤與熊市並不一定是同一性質的社會事件。例如美國1987年的崩盤並沒有導致熊市。同樣，20世紀90年代日本日經指數發生的熊市也沒有導致任何明顯的崩盤。但熊市經常是跟隨在崩盤之後而來。

Splendid Calls From the Vast Galaxies's Depths. 來自浩瀚星海深層的呼喚

Tonight, I'd stared at the flashing and flying star in the starring night sky, with listening to the sounds of the great Canvas!

There're splendid calls from the vast galaxies at a distance of 100 millions light-years away, the sounds of the calls' re waving one after anothers, and then made my heart resonated and sympathized in the depths .

I headed up and stared at the night sky in amazement to be longing for "Amazing Grace" at this point, and then there's a bright star flashing and flying in the splendid starring night sky, she'd messaged me, that galaxies're preferred to stocks markets, and.....

Speculator Ponders

Speculator Ponders with
Discerning Eyes:

‧The deep meaning and secrets of global stock market crash ;
‧The long dark nights get follow as soon as the mornings get go away;
‧Do investing during peacetime, but do speculating while the market get fluctuated;
‧While do speculating in short-term, not to be limited by the mentalities of "likely to ...", " will ..." and "will soon be ...".
慧眼沉思：
‧全球股市暴跌的深層內涵與秘密；
‧早晨即過，漫漫長夜也緊跟在後；
‧平時是投資，市場波浪潮大為變動時是投機；
‧短期投機，不要被「可能還會...」、「又會...」及「即將會...」的心態所拘泥。