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StockPreacher & StockPicker :

股價低買高賣的準則

一、前言
股市競爭比戰場還激烈,要買什麼股票?要賣什麼股票?必須要有一一致性、完備性且是決定性的公設(postulate)或公理(axiom)做為股市戰場的作戰準則 --- 低買高賣。

二、股價低買高賣的準則
股價低於內在價值時就堅決分批買入,以實現“低買”作戰準則;反過來,股價遠高於內在價值時,就應該分批賣出股票,以實現“高賣”作戰準則。(確定你持股的股價比(P/X)在本blog表頭分配圖的哪一區間,及其臨界點)

三、買什麼股票的作戰準則
當股價 / 內在價值處於收歛,其趨近於臨界值域下限時是最佳的買入時價區域,也就是:d(P/V) → 0,且d(d(P/V)) > 0 ;

四、賣什麼股票的作戰準則
當股價 / 內在價值處於發散,其趨近於臨界值域上限時是最佳的賣出時價區域,也就是:d(P/V) → 0,且d(d(P/V)) < 0 ;

五、實戰之實證與情報
此實證與情報等情資已於MICS-Stock Picker表裡全盤托出,細心的價值投資作戰戰士,請自行察閱。

本文更詳盡的解析,請搜尋下表資料裡的電子書:恐慌與機會。

你可以在最近的分析文章中及MICS-Stock Picker表中挑選到所需要價值投資的股票標的。

2008/4/12

Why US ↓ and then TW ?

TW = F(US, CN.....)

TW?
??
USCN

TW??? ←
Dow↓ , S&P500↓ , Nasdaq↓ ← GE↓ , AMD↓, Alcoa↓......


Why Wall Street fell at every turn? Why Famous corporate profits recession ? Reasons inseparable from the following variables of the multivariate analysis and, ultimately, the real variables is from the China factor. Since the United States established diplomatic relations with China, the impact of these variables impact has been brewing for 30 years, the United States had undergone this stage full of hope from variables of China , and also had enjoyed the benefits, but it is now entering dashed hopes, or even the consequences of the disaster.

TW stocks? ← foreign investment trends? ← US stocks ↓ ← US financial and banking stocks ↓ ← US secondary mortgage market deterioration ↑ ↑ ← US Consumer Credit deterioration ↑ ↑← US the unemployed ↑↑ ← US manufacturing deterioration↑ ↑ ← US manufacturing and orders shift oversea and increased productivity ↑ ↑ ← China (the lowest price) productivity ↑← US implement the policy of free trade↑:

* The influx of money will always flow to pay the highest rates of the market, the trend of moving money, will bring investment, employment opportunities, income and prosperity to flee (from The Bull Hunter).
* In 5 years since year 2000 , US had increased about 300 million unemployed workers from manufacturing , by the year 2015 will increase the estimated 3.3 million people are unemployed, US pay income thus reducing more than $150 billion (from China Inc).


美股為什麼動不動就大跌?有名的公司獲利為什麼衰退? 原因離不開以下多變量分析中的變數,而最終的自變數就是來自中國因素,自美國與中國建交以來,這變數的影響與衝擊已醞釀了30年,美國經歷了對中國這變數 充滿希望的階段,也曾享受到應有的利益,現在是進入希望破滅,甚至是災難的惡果。

台股? ← 外資動向? 美股↓ ← 美國金融銀行股↓ ← 美國次級房貸市場惡化↑↑ ← 美國消費者信用惡化↑↑ ← 美國製造業失業人口↑↑ ← 美國製造業和訂單外移及提高生產力↑↑ ← 中國的(最低的價格)生產力↑ ←美國實施自由貿易政策:

*錢潮總是會流向報酬率最高的市場,錢潮流動時,會帶著投資、就業機會、新所得與繁榮一起出走(摘自The Bull Hunter)。
*美國在2000年後的5年間, 就約有300萬人製造業的從業人員失業,在2015年之前估計還會增加330萬人失業,美國人的薪資所得將因此減少1500億美元以上(摘自China Inc.)。


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以下是今天摘要自AP & WTJ的報導:

今天及本週美國股市重挫:
The Dow fell 256.56, or 2.04 percent, to 12,325.42. GE was by far the steepest decliner among the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow. Its shares dropped $4.70, or 13 percent, to $32.05. For the week, the Dow lost 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 declined 2.7 percent and the technology-heavy Nasdaq gave up 3.4 percent.

美國代表性公司第一季業績大幅衰退:

General Electric Co.(GE) reported a 5.8% drop in first-quarter net income amid weakness in its sprawling financial-services operations and issued a disappointing forecast for the rest of the year, delivering another blow to markets already concerned about a U.S.-led economic slowdown.
The smaller-than-expected profits from GE injected anxiety into a market that earlier this week saw disappointing results from aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and a warning from chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc(AMD).

美國四月份消費者信心指數26年來最低:

The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 63.2 for April -- its lowest point since 1982 -- from 69.5 in March, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Economists polled by Thomson/IFR had, on average, expected a reading of 68.

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